As 2025 gains steam, I want to wish you and your family the best for the upcoming year.  This is a time to reflect, appreciate and plan for what lies ahead.  I am always grateful for various opportunities to meet my neighbors and prospective clients throughout the amazing communities within Sonoma and Napa Counties.   With more than 25 years in the business I continue to be excited about deal making, problem solving, navigating the always changing market dynamics, and working through multi-facetted challenges that come along with selling real estate.  Ultimately, I look forward to working with my clients, helping them achieve their goals by closing the deal and hopefully becoming long term friends throughout the process.

“Often, bumpy roads lead to beautiful places. And this is a beautiful place.”

Digging into the market activity we can see that there are still deals being made, that is good news.  The bad news is that there is a lot more competition if you are a seller.  At this point it should not come as a shock to say, within the vineyard and winery space, it is a buyer’s market.  There are more vineyards and wineries available now than I have seen in well over a decade.  It does remind me of earlier in my career when it was not uncommon to have a healthy number of options available in both Napa and Sonoma Counties.  Maybe the last decade was more of an anomaly where there so few options available.  Either way, there are more bumps in the road than what we have been used to recently.

The current glut of wine grapes and softened wine demand has led to a downturn in the wine adjacent real estate market.  None of this is news to you. The industry has been through similar cycles before, but this one may be a little different, a little longer and a little deeper than previous cycles.  To put a positive spin on it, we are well into the down cycle as it started before last harvest.  Expectations are that 2025 will be another rough ride for wine grapes but then we could start working our way out of the ditch. How much this impacts an individual vineyard or winery owner really depends on the location and make-up of the property.

A Market in Flux

Not to sound like a broken record but once again quality matters.  Whether it is high end Napa Valley Cabernet or West Sonoma Coast Pinot Noir vineyards, quality and scarcity will still demand the highest real estate prices.  Where are these numbers now?  At this stage I would give you a firm TBD.  I know that lacks precision but until additional transactions take place pinpointing values becomes more of an art than science.  My gut tells me that prices for high-end vineyards in Napa Valley and Sonoma Counties will flatten out but vineyards of average or less than average quality will see prices hit anywhere from 10 – 30% depending on the location, varietal, age, condition and grape contract status / terms.

Already we are seeing opportunistic buyers enter the playing field.  This is the first stage required for market recovery.  One example is the Vintage Wine Estates bankruptcy that included local wineries like Girard Winery, Clos Pegase, Swanson Vineyards, B.R. Cohn, Viansa Sonoma, Cameron Hughes, and Windsor Vineyards, along with 1,100 acres of vineyard and various other wine brands.  These assets were quickly snapped up once they became available.  This kind of trading dynamic helps reset pricing / value expectations which are also necessary for the real estate market to find its footing and move forward.

“You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough.”

On the other end of the spectrum are lifestyle properties, properties where one can live the dream.  A lifestyle property has a home and vineyard up to 10± acres before it starts to blend into more of a commercial operation.   Lifestyle is still in vogue, I don’t see that changing anytime soon.  Our local wealth generator, Silicon Valley, continues humming along providing ample funds for those who want a piece of the dream, a wine country estate.  Beyond our local area, domestic and international buyers continue to cherish our backyard.  A nice home or cottage, in a lovely location, with a small vineyard is still very desirable. Whether it be Saint Helena, Yountville, Healdsburg or West Sonoma County, buyers are interested.

Getting A Grip

As the market gains traction buyers will continue to focus on local Sonoma and Napa real estate.  The same holds true for larger vineyards and wineries.  There are industry players looking for the right opportunity and entry point to make their move.  It could be that a large entity has sold an asset and needs to do a 1031 exchange for tax purposes, a vineyard may fit the bill.  Or it could be someone that has the wine bug and wants to operate a small winery.  It could a young aspiring winemaker. It could be someone finally checking off that post-retirement bucket list item of owning a vineyard or winery.  Sellers should also remember that sometimes doing a deal just simply comes down to timing, so don’t be afraid to go to market.

Throughout my career I have sold numerous land parcels, vineyards, vineyard estates and small wineries. In the last several years I have closed a handful of wineries in the 2 – 10k+ case range.  If you own a winery then you know that they are complex including real estate, entitlement, compliance, brand, inventory, and equipment components.  There are many moving parts that require unique experience.  If you are a buyer, I currently have 4 vineyard estates, 8 vineyards from 10 – 300 acres, and 9 wineries for sale ranging from 2,000 – 240,000 case capacity available for sale.

If you are a seller and would like to discuss your property on a confidential basis:  Land, Vineyard, Vineyard Estate or Winery etc…  please give me a call or send an email.  I look forward to hearing from you.

Cheers!

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Some additional articles that might be helpful:

What’s Past is Prologue in a Bifurcated Real Estate Market

What is a vineyard really worth?  It depends.

Wine Country Real Estate Building Blocks

Looking to Buy A Winery, Start Here

Buying a Vineyard?  A short course to the basics.

Which AVA came first?

If you are serious about your wine country search, please contact us today.  Last but least, here is link to more local resources.